An Introduction to Second-Order Thinking and Its Examples

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1. 29 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

   Corrected 2 citation errors: the widely-cited '1.27 million deaths from antibiotic resistance' statistic was misattributed to a 2019 WHO estimate, when it actually comes from a 2022 Lancet study (the GRAM project, Murray et al.); and the 2010 Flash Crash's recovery was described as happening 'within minutes' when the real, documented recovery took approximately 20-36 minutes.

   Before

   Article misattributed a real, correct statistic to the wrong source and year, and overstated the speed of a well-documented market event's recovery.

   After

   Corrected the antibiotic-resistance statistic's attribution to the real Lancet/GRAM source and year; corrected the Flash Crash recovery timeframe to approximately 30 minutes.

   Why: Philip Tetlock's real forecasting research (82,000 predictions, 284 experts, 20 years) verified as fully accurate; the historical case studies (Green Revolution, Sarbanes-Oxley, ACA, Amazon Marketplace, Facebook News Feed) all checked out as directionally accurate, with only minor imprecision in some figures like SOX compliance costs, which vary widely across real studies and were left as a reasonable order-of-magnitude estimate rather than fabricated.

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Full contribution timeline

1. Correction 29 July 2026

   Emir Baycan: Corrected 2 citation errors: the widely-cited '1.27 million deaths from antibiotic resistance' statistic was misattributed to a 2019 WHO estimate, when it actually comes from a 2022 Lancet study (the GRAM project, Murray et al.); and the 2010 Flash Crash's recovery was described as happening 'within minutes' when the real, documented recovery took approximately 20-36 minutes.

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