Correction: Probabilistic Thinking for Enhanced Decision-Making
Corrected by Emir Baycan · Full-Stack Developer, Mobile App Builder and Web Platform Founder with expertise in SEO, automation, SaaS, AI visibility, DevOps and scalable digital products
Emir Baycan found something wrong, outdated, or unsupported on this page and proposed a fix. The publisher accepted the correction.
- Role
- Correction
- Publisher
- When Notes Fly
- Topic
- Concepts
- Status
- Accepted
- Date
- 28 July 2026
The exact change
The article said the Good Judgment Project's top quartile became superforecasters, and that Astro Teller's 'one in ten' Google X project-abandonment rate is a 90% attrition rate.
Corrected the superforecaster selectivity to roughly the top 2% and fixed the attrition-rate arithmetic (1 in 10 is 10%, not 90%).
Suggested change
See before/after.
Why this is better
One figure overstated how selective superforecaster status was, and the other was a basic arithmetic error (confusing 1-in-10 with 90%). Corrections fix the math rather than adding new sources.
How this record is verified
- The contribution is tied to a real, identified contributor, not an anonymous byline.
- It counts only because the publisher, When Notes Fly, accepted it. Self-claimed work earns nothing.
- It is recorded against a specific page and cannot be bought or edited after the fact.