Key Decision-Making Terms People Misuse

Key Decision-Making Terms People Misuse

Corrected by Emir Baycan · on When Notes Fly · 29 July 2026 · View published page ↗

Risk vs uncertainty: Risk has known probabilities, uncertainty doesn't. Heuristics are mental shortcuts, biases are systematic errors.

Misleading wordingMissing context

What was corrected

What the page claimed

Article conflated two distinct causal inference frameworks into a false unified checklist and overstated their alignment with a single evidentiary gold standard.

What was corrected

Separated the two frameworks, described Hill's criteria as informal non-exhaustive guidelines, described Pearl's causal calculus as a separate formal framework for causal identification including from observational data, and broadened 'gold standard' to acknowledge quasi-experimental and observational methods.

Why this is better

This finding was originally identified by Codex's fact-check pass; independent verification confirmed the misstatement on all three points before correction.

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