Intuition vs Analytical Decision Making

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1. 31 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

   Corrected the date, location, and scale of a real foundational study, an unsupported neuroscience claim, and two statistics that did not match the real research they were attributed to

   What the page claimed

   Article dated Gary Klein's real fireground commander study to 1989 when it was actually conducted in the mid-1980s (1989 is when a separate, related conference was held in Dayton, Ohio, a detail the article conflated with the study itself), and stated the study analyzed 'over 600 decision incidents' when the real figure is 156 decision points. It also included a claim that brain imaging studies confirmed a specific neural sequence in expert decision-makers, which does not match Klein's actual behavioral research methodology and could not be verified against any real study. For the Good Judgment Project, it stated 20,000 total forecasters were recruited when the real early-year figures are closer to 2,800-3,900, and stated the superforecaster cohort was 'approximately 70' when it started around 60 and later grew into the hundreds. It also included a '60 percent better than the median forecaster' comparison that could not be verified, alongside the real, well-documented '30 percent better than CIA analysts' figure.

   What was corrected

   Corrected Klein's study date and added the real co-authors and sample details (26 commanders, 156 decision points), removed the unsupported neural-sequence claim and replaced it with an accurate description of Klein's real methodology, corrected the Good Judgment Project's forecaster counts to reflect its real, documented recruitment numbers, and removed the unverified 60-percent comparison while preserving the well-documented 30-percent figure.

   Why: Verified against Klein, Calderwood, and Clinton-Cirocco's original fireground commander research, the Good Judgment Project's actual documented recruitment and superforecaster figures, and Tetlock and Gardner's published Superforecasting research.

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