Delays in Systems Explained

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Correction history

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1. 28 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

   Qualified or corrected six overstated statistics: reframed Wiener's control-theory result about delay-induced oscillation without the overly precise 'greater than half the natural period' universal rule; presented Forrester's 20-40% inventory-oscillation figure as illustrative model output dependent on assumptions; softened Sterman's 'virtually all players' to 'the great majority'; qualified the P&G/CPFR '30% cost reduction' and '8-12 weeks' figures as commonly cited estimates; replaced a specific 0.73 correlation (which could not be verified) with the accurate general finding that delay misperception strongly relates to oscillation size; and removed an unverifiable 2003 Trivedi Journal of Clinical Psychiatry '35% prescribing error' citation while keeping the valid clinical caution about early antidepressant dose escalation.

   Before

   The article stated Wiener's half-natural-period oscillation rule, a fixed 20-40% Forrester oscillation figure, that virtually all Beer Game players show the bullwhip, a P&G 8-12-week / 30%-cost / CPFR result, a Sterman 0.73 correlation across 192 teams, and a Trivedi 2003 35% prescribing-error figure.

   After

   Qualified the control-theory and model figures, softened the universal-player claim, framed the P&G figures as estimates, generalized the unverifiable 0.73 correlation, and removed the unverifiable Trivedi citation while retaining the clinical point.

   Why: Several precise figures and the Trivedi citation could not be verified and were stated too definitively. Corrections scope the claims to what the sources support rather than adding new sources.

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Full contribution timeline

1. Correction 28 July 2026

   Emir Baycan: Qualified or corrected six overstated statistics: reframed Wiener's control-theory result about delay-induced oscillation without the overly precise 'greater than half the natural period' universal rule; presented Forrester's 20-40% inventory-oscillation figure as illustrative model output dependent on assumptions; softened Sterman's 'virtually all players' to 'the great majority'; qualified the P&G/CPFR '30% cost reduction' and '8-12 weeks' figures as commonly cited estimates; replaced a specific 0.73 correlation (which could not be verified) with the accurate general finding that delay misperception strongly relates to oscillation size; and removed an unverifiable 2003 Trivedi Journal of Clinical Psychiatry '35% prescribing error' citation while keeping the valid clinical caution about early antidepressant dose escalation.

   Proof record →