Correction: What Is a Mental Model and How to Build a Better Toolkit (2)
Corrected by Emir Baycan · Full-Stack Developer, Mobile App Builder and Web Platform Founder with expertise in SEO, automation, SaaS, AI visibility, DevOps and scalable digital products
Emir Baycan found something wrong, outdated, or unsupported on this page and proposed a fix. The publisher accepted the correction.
- Role
- Correction
- Publisher
- When Notes Fly
- Topic
- Concepts
- Status
- Accepted
- Date
- 28 July 2026
The exact change
The article attributed the forecasting study to Superforecasting 2015, gave a 30% premortem figure, said genuine experts underestimate competence per Dunning-Kruger, said superforecasters update three times as often, gave a 5-10x SpaceX cost figure, said Forrester documented dozens of opposite-effect cases, and presented Nordgren and Eisenhardt as proving diverse-model and latticework claims.
Re-attributed and qualified each to the primary record: Expert Political Judgment 2005 for the forecasting numbers, illustrative framing for the premortem figure, the debated status of the Dunning-Kruger below-average effect, Musk's own account for the SpaceX figure, and softened causal language for Forrester, Nordgren, and Eisenhardt.
Suggested change
See before/after.
Why this is better
The sources are genuine but were mis-attributed or overstated. Corrections fix the citation and scope the claims to what the studies support rather than adding new sources.
How this record is verified
- The contribution is tied to a real, identified contributor, not an anonymous byline.
- It counts only because the publisher, When Notes Fly, accepted it. Self-claimed work earns nothing.
- It is recorded against a specific page and cannot be bought or edited after the fact.